11.11
Corn fell the most in more than two weeks in Chicago on speculation that rising output in China, the world’s second-largest consumer, will reduce demand for imports from the U.S.
China may have harvested a record 180 million metric tons this year, up from 166 million last year, Caijing Business & Finance Review magazine reported on its website, citing an unidentified company executive. Last year, China was a net importer of corn for the first time since 1996. The government has been selling grain from state-owned inventories to cool the rally in domestic prices.
“Rising China-crop forecasts are a surprise because people have been expecting increased import demand,” said Greg Grow, the director of agribusiness for Archer Financial Services Inc. in Chicago. “People are more concerned that China will not buy U.S. corn later this year.”
Corn futures for March delivery fell 9.25 cents, or 1.6 percent, to close at $5.81 a bushel at 1:15 a.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade, the biggest drop since Oct. 21. Before today, the price surged 58 percent since the end of June, touching a two-year high of $6.175 yesterday, after adverse weather reduced the size of the U.S. crop.
Trading volume reached a record 762,387 futures contracts yesterday in Chicago, and open interest was 1.677 million contracts, the most ever, according to CME Group Inc., the owner of the CBOT.
China Crop Forecast
Chinese farmers collected 154.56 million tons this year, up from an estimated 144.374 million last year, according to an estimate by Geneva-based SGS SA for Bloomberg that was based on interviews with growers during the harvest in September and October. Farmers planted more and favorable weather boosted yields, the survey showed. Chinese corn prices have risen 30 percent in the past year.
Yesterday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said China produced 168 million tons, up from last month’s estimate of 166 million. The USDA expects consumption to expand by 1.9 percent in China to 162 million tons in the year from Oct. 1.
Today’s price drop also was fueled by speculators reducing their bets on further rallies, Grow said. The close below the Nov. 8 low, after reaching a new high earlier in the day, created a “sell” signal for some traders who monitor historical patterns, he said.
“The reversal yesterday on record volume was a sign of at least a near-term peak,” Grow said. “The market needs to consolidate recent gains.”
Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued at $48.6 billion in 2009, government figures show, followed by soybeans at $31.8 billion. The U.S. is the world’s largest grower, exporter and consumer of corn.

